Exams per million instances circumstances per check provides you confirmed circumstances per million. However we wish true circumstances per million.

Exams per million are completely different throughout states as a result of (a) the states are enterprise testing with completely different ranges of effort and (b) the prevalence of the virus is completely different in numerous states.

Confirmed circumstances per million are completely different throughout states as a result of (c) states are testing at completely different charges and (b) the prevalence of the virus is completely different in numerous states.

Instances per check are completely different throughout states as a result of (d) some states will not be testing a lot and therefore are nonetheless choosing (comparatively, for his or her state) low hanging fruit and (b) the prevalence of the virus is completely different in numerous states.

We now have knowledge on confirmed circumstances and exams throughout states. How will we use that to get actual versus faux estimates of the place the virus is within the completely different states?

After which there’s the lag: how will we do the nowcast, taking correct account of acceleration and deceleration within the progress of the illness?


Georgia, for instance, is fifth in circumstances per check, at 0.24. Georgia can be fortysixth in exams per million, at 6598. And so Georgia is thirteenth in circumstances per million, at 1590.

If Georgia have been testing on the similar price as New York—30000 per million—what number of circumstances wouldn’t it be reporting, and what would its confirmed caseload be? Its circumstances per check is presumably elevated as a result of it isn’t testing very many individuals, so merely multiplying by 4.5 just isn’t proper. What is true?


#coronavirus #notetoself #2020-04-17

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